Can online search data improve the forecast accuracy of pork price in China?

Online search data provide us with a new perspective for quantifying public concern about animal diseases, which can be regarded as a major external shock to price fluctuations. We propose a modeling framework for pork price forecasting that incorporates online search data with support vector regression model. This novel framework involves three main steps: that is, formulation of the animal diseases composite indexes (ADCIs) based on online search data; forecast with the original ADCIs; and forecast improvement with the decomposed ADCIs. Considering that there are some noises within the online search data, four decomposition techniques are introduced: that is, wavelet decomposition, empirical mode decomposition, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, and singular spectrum analysis. The experimental study confirms the superiority of the proposed framework, which improves both the level and directional prediction accuracy. With the SSA method, the noise within the online search data can be removed and the performance of the optimal model is further enhanced. Owing to the long-term effect of diseases outbreak on price volatility, these improvements are more prominent in the mid- and long-term forecast horizons.     

基于动态阈值的混凝土裂缝高抗噪提取及识别方法

针对表面布有蜂窝麻面等复杂噪声的混凝土裂缝,提出了一种基于动态阈值的混凝土裂缝高抗噪提取方法.首先,通过灰度变换、高斯滤波、信息增强等技术弱化、去除噪声,增强图像中裂缝的亮度,提高裂缝与背景的对比度;然后,采用OTSU阈值分割算法去除伪裂缝,基于裂缝与干扰噪声面积的差异,引入动态阈值,实现各类型裂缝的提取;最后,基于边缘检测和裂缝骨架细化处理,计算裂缝的长度、宽度和面积3项特征参数.基于室内实验和室外实际桥梁拍摄的4组裂缝图像结果表明,4组裂缝的平均宽度分别为2.01、1.07、1.34、0.97 mm,说明该方法适用于不同背景下各类型裂缝的提取,具有较强的鲁棒性.     

Theoretical and experimental design of Pt-Co(OH)_2 electrocatalyst for efficient HER performance in alkaline solution

Design efficient electrocatalysts become significant for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) in alkaline solution.Here,the HER performance on Pt-Co(OH)2 has been investigated by using DFT calculations.Compared with pure Pt,the Pt-Co(OH)2 shows excellent hydrogen binding energy (-0.29 eV) and hydrogen adsorption free energy (0.02 eV).More strikingly,the water dissociation process on Pt-Co(OH)2 is an exothermic reaction while that of Pt is an endothermic reaction,demonstrating that the Pt-Co(OH)_2 is an excellent catalyst for HER in alkaline medium.Then the two-step electrodepositions was used to fabricate Pt-Co(OH)2 on the carbon paper (CP).The Pt-Co(OH)_2/CP shows the lowest overpotential of only 37.6 mV at a current density of 10 mA cm~(-2) in 0.1M KOH,the smallest Tafel slope of58 mV dec~(-1) and the good stability for 20000s without obvious degradation.     

Projective Group Consensus of Multi-Agent Systems with Arbitrary Parameter

In this paper, the projective group consensus issue for second order multi-agent systems(MASs) in directed graphs with a dynamic leader is investigated. The proposed projective group consensus with arbitrary parameter includes traditional consensus, reverse group consensus and cluster consensus as its special cases. Novel distributed control protocols are designed to obtain projective group consensus without analyzing signed directed graph as in most current literatures on bipartite consensus problem. On the basis of Lyapunov stability property, algebraic graph and some necessary matrix theory, sufficient conditions for delay and delay-free cases are derived. Finally, simulations of nonlinear chaotic MASs are adopted to testify the theoretical results.     

The Effectiveness of Structural Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Policies — Based on the DSGE Model That Includes Bank Heterogeneous Credit

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity - Structural monetary policy and macro-prudential policies are important parts of the policy system of the People’s Bank of China. By constructing a...     

加快建设国家科研论文和科技信息高端交流平台

构建国家科研论文和科技信息高端交流平台是加强国家战略科技力量的重要举措之一.在系统梳理我国科研论文和科技信息交流平台建设现状的基础上,指出目前存在资源分散、规模尚小、重复建设、开放度低、专业性不足、功能不完善、交流不通畅等问题,缺乏吸纳全球科研成果的平台或载体,难以从创新链和产业链的角度整合技术供给体系,进而提出整合国家战略科技资源、构建系统深入的开放交流机制、提升交流平台的建设水平、充分发挥竞争情报人员作用和建立健全科研评价体系等对策建议,为我国未来高端交流平台的建设提供有益启示.     

基于无人机实时数据多波次任务规划模型分析

针对导弹部队多波次作战任务规划问题, 依据无人机的实时数据, 构建了基于路径的多层规划模型, 并设计了模型的算法求解流程。使用遗传算法与禁忌搜索混合算法, 得出了任务规划中的最优路径规划, 并在此基础上进行了冲突的消除。通过仿真案例表明, 用无人机协同配合导弹部队作战, 实时传输作战数据, 能够解决战场信息模糊不确定的问题; 使用多层规划模型能够为导弹多波次规划作战的路径进行科学的决策和选择。利用遗传算法和禁忌搜索混合算法, 能够避免局部最优导致无法输出结果的现象。     

Steganalysis of neural networks based on parameter statistical bias

Many pretrained deep learning models have been released to help engineers and researchers develop deep learning-based systems or conduct research with minimall effort. Previous work has shown that at secret message can be embedded in neural network parameters without compromising the accuracy of the model. Malicious developers can, therefore, hide malware or other baneful information in pretrained models, causing harm to society. Hence, reliable detection of these vicious pretrained models is urgently needed. We analyze existing approaches for hiding messages and find that they will ineluctably cause biases in the parameter statistics. Therefore, we propose steganalysis methods for steganography on neural network parameters that extract statistics from benign and malicious models and build classifiers based on the extracted statistics. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on neural network steganalysis. The experimental results reveal that our proposed algorithm can effectively detect a model with an embedded message. Notably, our detection methods are still valid in cases where the payload of the stego model is low.     

埃利奥特实践主义音乐教育哲学释论

实践主义是继审美主义之后最具影响力的音乐教育哲学,由美国学者戴维·埃利奥特创立。埃利奥特批判了审美主义纯粹听觉及其审美感受的主张,以后现代思想以及音乐人类学为理论基础,提出了以音乐表演为中心的实践音乐教育思想。实践主义把音乐理解为人类的实践活动,并以此为基础阐述了通过"做乐",提高学生音乐理解,通过音乐理解力的提高实现音乐素养的提升,通过音乐素养的提升最终达到学生音乐自我成长的终极教育目标。"审美"与"实践"并非对立思想,二者共通之处即都是音乐的体验。